
Zero to One
Peter Thiel with Blake Masters
Peter Thiel's case for building new things instead of copying old ones: why great companies are monopolies, how to find secrets and what every startup must get right. For founders and investors.

by Eric Ries
2011 · 336 pages
Eric Ries's method for building new products under extreme uncertainty: test ideas fast with real customers, measure what matters and pivot early. For founders and product teams.
A startup is any team that builds something new under extreme uncertainty. Most fail because they build what no one wants. Ries argues that the unit of progress is validated learning: real evidence of what customers do. Run the Build-Measure-Learn loop as fast as you can. Start with a minimum viable product that tests your riskiest assumptions. Track actionable metrics, not vanity totals, through innovation accounting. At regular intervals, decide to pivot or persevere. As you grow, work in small batches, focus on one engine of growth and use the Five Whys to fix root causes.
Ries defines a startup as a human institution that creates a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty. That includes a team inside a large company, a nonprofit or a government project. Traditional management assumes you already know the customer and the product, so you plan and execute. When you do not know those things, a detailed plan is only a guess. Ries argues that startups need a different kind of management, one built around learning fast.
For a startup, writing code or shipping features is not progress by itself. Progress is evidence, from real customers, about what creates value. Ries learned this at IMVU, where his team spent months on an instant messaging add-on that customers did not want. A crude test would have shown that in days. Ries asks teams to sort their efforts into two kinds: work that produced learning about customers, and waste.
The core of the method is a feedback loop. You build something, measure how customers respond, and learn what to do next. Speed through the whole loop matters more than perfection at any step. Ries says you should plan the loop backward: decide what you need to learn, then what to measure, then the least you must build to get that number. Start with your leap-of-faith assumptions, especially the value hypothesis and the growth hypothesis.
An MVP is the smallest thing that lets you complete one turn of the loop. It is a tool for learning, not a cheap version of the final product. Dropbox tested demand with a short demo video, and its waiting list jumped from about 5,000 to 75,000 people. Zappos began with photos of shoes from local stores, bought and shipped by hand after each order. Food on the Table served its first customer manually before writing software.
Vanity metrics such as total sign-ups or total page views tend to rise and feel good, but they hide whether a change worked. Actionable metrics show cause and effect. Ries uses cohort analysis, which follows each group of new customers separately, and split tests, which compare versions at the same time. Good reports pass the three A's: actionable, accessible and auditable. Grockit used split tests to learn that a change it believed in did not alter behavior.
A pivot is a structured change of course that tests a new basic hypothesis while keeping what you have learned. Ries lists many types, including the zoom-in pivot, customer segment pivot, value capture pivot and engine of growth pivot. He warns about the land of the living dead, where a startup neither grows nor fails. Regular pivot-or-persevere meetings make the team face the data and choose, instead of drifting for years.
Ries names three engines. The sticky engine depends on keeping customers, so watch churn. The viral engine depends on users bringing in new users, so watch the viral coefficient. The paid engine depends on the gap between a customer's lifetime value and the cost to acquire one. Each engine needs different metrics and different work. Ries advises focusing on one engine at a time so the team knows which numbers to move.
Borrowed from Toyota, the Five Whys asks "why" five times when something breaks, to get from the symptom to the root cause. A bug may trace back to a missing test, then to rushed training, then to a hiring process. Ries pairs this with proportional investment: spend on each fix in proportion to the size of the problem. Small failures get small fixes, so the process grows only as fast as the problems demand.
“A startup is a human institution designed to create a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty.”
Eric Ries built the method in this book from his own failures and from his work at IMVU, a company that made 3D avatars and instant messaging. He borrows from the Toyota Production System and lean manufacturing, and from Steve Blank's work on customer development. The book has three parts: Vision, Steer and Accelerate.
Ries defines a startup as a human institution that tries to create a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty. By this definition, a team inside a large company can be a startup. So can a nonprofit or a government office. The size of the group does not matter. The uncertainty does.
Most startups fail, Ries argues, not because they build badly but because they build the wrong thing. Traditional management assumes you know the customer and the product. You write a plan and execute it. Under extreme uncertainty, that plan is a guess. Executing a guess perfectly is still a waste.
So Ries says the real unit of progress in a startup is validated learning. This is learning backed by real data from real customers, not opinions or forecasts. At IMVU, the team spent months building an add-on that let users bring their existing instant messaging friends into the product. Customers did not want it. They wanted to meet new people. The team could have learned this in days, with a crude test. Ries asks a hard question: which of our efforts created value, and which were waste? Anything that does not help you learn what customers want is waste.
The core of the method is the Build-Measure-Learn feedback loop. You turn ideas into products, measure how customers respond, and learn whether to keep going or change course. The goal is to get through this loop as fast as possible.
Ries notes that you plan the loop in reverse. First decide what you need to learn. Then decide what you must measure to learn it. Then decide the smallest thing you can build to get that measurement.
The loop starts with leap-of-faith assumptions. These are the beliefs your whole plan depends on. Ries names the two most important:
Before you build, you should talk to customers directly. Ries uses the Toyota phrase genchi gembutsu, which means "go and see for yourself."
The minimum viable product (MVP) is the version of a product that lets a team run a full turn of the loop with the least effort. It is not a smaller version of the final product. It is a tool for learning. Ries gives several types:
Ries addresses the fears that stop teams from shipping an MVP. Teams worry about legal issues, about competitors stealing the idea and about damage to the brand. He argues that most ideas are not stolen, that you can launch under a different brand name, and that the real risk is building something nobody wants. If the MVP fails, do not give up. Treat it as data.
To know whether you are making progress, you need a way to measure it. Ries calls this innovation accounting. It has three steps:
Most startups track the wrong numbers. Ries calls them vanity metrics: totals like gross registered users or total page views that go up and to the right and make people feel good, but do not show whether a change worked. He prefers actionable metrics, which show clear cause and effect. He uses tools such as cohort analysis, which tracks each group of new customers separately, and split testing, which shows different versions to different customers at the same time.
He also gives three tests for good reports, the three A's: actionable, accessible and auditable. People must be able to understand the numbers and trust where they come from.
Ries describes Grockit, an online test-prep company. Its team kept shipping features, but cohort data and split tests showed that a change it believed in did not alter customer behavior. That insight saved the team from building more of the wrong thing.
At regular intervals, a startup must make the hardest decision: keep going on the current strategy, or pivot. A pivot is a structured change of course that tests a new fundamental hypothesis about the product, strategy or engine of growth. It keeps one foot in what the team has learned.
Ries lists the kinds of pivot:
Ries tells the story of Votizen, a civic platform, which went through several pivots before it found a model that worked. He also warns about the land of the living dead: startups that are neither growing nor failing. They move just enough to keep going, but not enough to succeed. Regular "pivot or persevere" meetings force the team to face the evidence.
The last part of the book is about how to move through the loop faster as the company grows.
Ries starts with small batches. He describes stuffing envelopes for a newsletter. Most people fold all the letters first, then stuff them all, then seal them. Working one envelope at a time is often faster overall, and it reveals problems early. In software, small batches mean shipping small changes often. Ries describes continuous deployment at IMVU, where code went to customers many times a day, with safeguards that caught bad changes.
Next come the engines of growth. Ries names three:
A startup should usually focus on one engine at a time.
As a company grows, it must build habits that keep it learning. Ries uses the Five Whys, a technique from Toyota. When something goes wrong, ask "why" five times to find the root cause. Then make a fix at each level, with the investment in each fix proportional to the size of the problem. Small problems get small fixes. This keeps the team from overbuilding process.
Ries also explains how large companies can innovate. They should protect internal startup teams with an innovation sandbox: a space where teams can run experiments with clear limits. The teams need secured resources, independent authority to act, and a personal stake in the result. He cites Intuit's SnapTax, a mobile tax product built by a small internal team, as an example.
The book closes with a call to stop wasting people's time. Ries wants management to treat entrepreneurship as a discipline that can be taught, not as a matter of luck.
Some critics say the method fits software and web products better than hardware, health care or deep science, where an MVP can be costly or unsafe. Others say the term MVP has been misused to justify shipping low-quality products, and that a strong focus on metrics can push teams toward small, safe improvements instead of bold visions. Ries himself frames the method as a way to test a vision, not to replace one.
This book is for founders, product managers and anyone who builds new products, inside or outside a large company. It is most useful for teams that are about to spend months building before talking to a single customer.
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Question 1 of 5
What does Ries call the unit of progress for a startup?
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